Top Coeur
5yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 95
Ascot · Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 63y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Newton Abbot | Jack Tudor | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | Chepstow | Jack Tudor | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Newton Abbot | Jack Tudor | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Uttoxeter | Jack Tudor | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Uttoxeter | Jack Tudor | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Southwell | Kielan Woods | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 09/10/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 17/10/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |