3
Dance And Glance
6yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 127
Ascot · Ascot Underwriting Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 181y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | Sam Twiston-Davies | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Haydock | Sam Twiston-Davies | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Newbury | Rex Dingle | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Sandown | Rex Dingle | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Ascot | Rex Dingle | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ascot | Rex Dingle | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.00 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 87% | +0.10 |