Glynn Brae
6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 136
Ascot · Ascot Underwriting Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 181y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Chepstow | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 1 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Ascot | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Chepstow | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Doncaster | Sam Twiston-Davies | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Sandown | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Sandown | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/03/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/12/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/10/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |