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Merely A Detail

5yo Mare · 10-5 · OR 114

Ascot · Ascot Underwriting Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 181y

#4

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win over hurdles but different proposition over fences, supplementing her Worcester debut victory in clear-cut fashion at Fontwell (2¼m) in August. Ran another solid race from career-high mark when third at first-named venue latest but more on her plate from 3 lb out of weights here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Warwick 05/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m Goo 1505/0544 @ Worcester 22/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m Goo 1534 @ Exeter 17/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 107 · 2m2f111y Goo 153 · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 107 par17/114OR 1074 @ Fakenham 21/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 107 · 2m3y Sft 161 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 107 par4 @ Stratford 19/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 105 · 2m70y Gd 158 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 105 par19/044OR 1053 @ Fakenham 04/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 105 · 2m4f1y Gd 160 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 105 par4 @ Worcester 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 102 · 2m110y Gd 160 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 102 par1/074OR 1024 @ Fontwell 28/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 107 · 2m1f165y Gd 164 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 107 par2 @ Worcester 25/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 115 · 2m4f Gd 159 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 115 par25/092OR 115projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25WorcesterJ J Burke23rd2nd+1
2026-08-28FontwellJ J Burke41st2nd−1
2026-07-01WorcesterJ J Burke41st2nd−1
2026-05-04FakenhamJ J Burke34th4th0
2026-04-19StratfordDanny McMenamin43rd4th−1
2025-12-21FakenhamR T Dunne44th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0521/121/0725/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/05/20252nd20/10%88%+0.88
22/10/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
17/11/20253rd14/126%50%+0.24
21/12/20254th9/153%40%-0.13
19/04/20263rd2/189%83%-0.06
04/05/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
01/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
28/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
25/09/20263rd11/271%82%+0.11