The Gray Ghost
7yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 120
Ascot · Ascot Underwriting Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 181y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Uttoxeter | Charlie Price | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Ayr | Callum Pritchard | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | Liam Harrison | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Newcastle | Callum Pritchard | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | Liam Harrison | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Ascot | Charlie Price | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 04/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 79% | +0.15 |
| 04/10/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |