10
Aeros Luck
7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 122
Ascot · Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 172y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Kelso | Mr Lucas Murphy | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | William Maggs | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | William Maggs | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | William Maggs | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-29 | Kelso | William Maggs | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Kelso | William Maggs | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |