Jour D'Evasion
7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 135
Ascot · Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 172y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Haydock | Sam Twiston-Davies | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Cheltenham | Sam Twiston-Davies | 1 | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-23 | Warwick | David Bass | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Chepstow | Sam Twiston-Davies | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Bangor-on-Dee | Sam Twiston-Davies | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aintree | Sam Twiston-Davies | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 05/12/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 15/01/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 15/02/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |