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2

Martator

9yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 144

Ascot · Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 172y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Most progressive when landing 5-timer in 2024, including this race on return. First win since (fitted with blinkers, usually wears cheekpieces) when causing a surprise in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival in March, all out. 5 lb rise seems fair and leading contender if ready.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Kempton 27/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 151 · 2m Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/12/2024 · OR 151 par27/121OR 1512 @ Ascot 18/01/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 151 · 2m5f8y Goo 163 · below its mark18/01/2025 · OR 151 par2 @ Sandown 01/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 150 · 1m7f99y Hvy 168 · below its mark01/02/2025 · OR 150 par1/022OR 1501 @ Cheltenham 12/03/2025 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 147 · 1m7f199y GS 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/03/2025 · OR 147 par2 @ Plumpton 21/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 144 · 2m214y Gd 157 · below its mark21/04/2025 · OR 144 par21/042OR 1441 @ Exeter 07/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 141 · 2m1f109y Gd 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 141 par2 @ Ascot 22/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 139 · 2m172y GS 150 · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 139 par22/112OR 1391 @ Cheltenham 13/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 141 · 2m4f127y GS 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 141 par1 @ Cheltenham 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 139 · 1m7f199y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 139 par11/031OR 139projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-11CheltenhamCharlie Deutsch11st0th+1
2026-01-31SandownCharlie Deutsch20
2025-12-13CheltenhamCharlie Deutsch19th8th+1
2025-11-22AscotNed Fox22nd2nd0
2025-11-07ExeterCharlie Deutsch15th4th+1
2025-04-21PlumptonCharlie Deutsch28th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1212/0322/1111/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20243rd2/189%67%-0.23
18/01/20257th4/179%33%-0.46
01/02/20256th8/158%0%-0.58
12/03/202510th50/10%53%+0.53
21/04/20258th40/10%22%+0.22
07/11/20255th9/153%20%-0.33
22/11/20252nd11/142%89%+0.47
13/12/20259th18/15%11%+0.06
11/03/20261st66/10%100%+1.00