Teddy Blue
8yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 144
Ascot · Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 172y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sandown | Paul O'Brien | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | Paul O'Brien | 1 | +1 | ||
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | Paul O'Brien | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Newbury | Freddie Keighley | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | Paul O'Brien | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Ascot | Paul O'Brien | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/04/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/11/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |