Vanderpoel
7yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 141
Ascot · Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 172y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Cheltenham | Ben Jones | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Sandown | Ben Jones | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Ascot | Ben Jones | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Lingfield | Ben Jones | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Uttoxeter | Ben Jones | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Kelso | Ben Jones | 1 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/02/2025 | 1st | 1/8 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 68% | +0.08 |