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Somespring Special

8yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 134

Ascot · Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 185y

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

8-y-o mare who boasts a good strike rate who registered back-to-back victories at Newton Abbot/Bangor (at up to 3m) in May. Severe mid-race error did her no favours at Perth when last seen in June but her career-high mark demands more after 5 months off in this environment. Had breathing operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Cheltenham 17/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 119 · 2m62y Gd 168 · below its mark17/04/2025 · OR 119 par17/043OR 1194 @ Newton Abbot 14/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 120 · 2m4f216y Goo 168 · below its mark14/05/2025 · OR 120 par4 @ Fontwell 22/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 119 · 2m3f104y Goo 166 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 119 par22/094OR 1194 @ Chepstow 10/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 118 · 2m3f98y Gd 167 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 118 par2 @ Kempton 14/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 125 · 2m4f110y Goo 149 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 125 par14/032OR 1253 @ Wincanton 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 125 · 1m7f149y Gd 162 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 125 par2 @ Newton Abbot 06/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 123 · 2m4f216y Goo 147 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 123 par6/052OR 1232 @ Bangor-on-Dee 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 129 · 3m30y Gd 152 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 129 par2 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 134 · 2m7f180y Gd 152 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 134 par7/062OR 134projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-07PerthBen Jones27th8th−1
2026-05-23Bangor-on-DeeBen Jones21st2nd−1
2026-05-06Newton AbbotBen Jones21st2nd−1
2026-04-12WincantonHarry Cobden33rd5th−2
2026-03-14KemptonSean Houlihan25th6th−1
2025-10-10ChepstowBen Jones41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0410/106/057/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20252nd5/287%80%-0.07
14/05/20252nd10/382%67%-0.16
22/09/20253rd5/174%60%-0.14
10/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
14/03/20265th40/10%33%+0.33
12/04/20263rd5/287%0%-0.87
06/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
23/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
07/06/20267th7/282%33%-0.48