9
Tapley
9yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 123
Ascot · Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 185y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
5lbsClass Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Plumpton | Caoilin Quinn | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-22 | Fontwell | Caoilin Quinn | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Stratford | Isabelle Ryder | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-04-14 | Newton Abbot | Isabelle Ryder | 3 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Stratford | Isabelle Ryder | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | Isabelle Ryder | 3 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/10/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |