IvyArcIvyArc
6

Transmission

9yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 133

Ascot · Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 185y

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to form with a bang during the spring, winning Edinburgh National at Musselburgh and solid efforts in Sussex National/Bet365 Gold Cup. Entitled to come on plenty for his hurdles reappearance earlier this month and whilst he's on a competitive mark, this trip could be on sharp side. Blinkers on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Cheltenham 25/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 133 · 2m7f213y Sft 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/01/2025 · OR 133 par25/011OR 1332 @ Cheltenham 11/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 133 · 3m5f201y GS 156 · below its mark11/03/2025 · OR 133 par2 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 132 · 3m1f Goo 150 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 132 par25/102OR 1321 @ Cheltenham 16/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 130 · 3m3f71y Sft 142 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 130 par1 @ Ascot 20/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 130 · 2m7f185y Goo 144 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 130 par20/121OR 1302 @ Musselburgh 01/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 129 · 3m7f76y GS 158 · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 129 par2 @ Plumpton 06/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 137 · 3m4f104y Gd 168 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 137 par6/042OR 1371 @ Sandown 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 137 · 3m4f146y Goo 153 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 137 par2 @ Market Rasen 17/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 135 · 2m7f16y Goo 168 · below its mark17/10/2026 · OR 135 par17/102OR 135projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-17Market RasenJames Bowen25th6th−1
2026-04-25SandownC O'Farrell17th7th0
2026-04-06PlumptonHarry Atkins23rd4th−1
2026-02-01MusselburghC O'Farrell21st2nd−1
2025-12-20AscotS Bowen18th8th0
2025-11-16CheltenhamHarriet Tucker18th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0116/116/0417/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength41%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/01/20256th9/153%0%-0.53
11/03/20255th7/282%76%-0.05
25/10/202512th9/153%35%-0.17
16/11/20258th13/266%22%-0.44
20/12/20258th17/255%36%-0.19
01/02/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
06/04/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
25/04/20267th12/137%40%+0.03
17/10/20265th14/126%0%-0.26