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Viroflay

9yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 144

Ascot · Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 185y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Jumped well and proved game when scoring at Kempton (3m) in December. Didn't jump with his usual fluency over the different fences in the Topham but he completed a simple task at Newton Abbot in May. Likely to face competition up front but promising rider looks good value for his claim.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Stratford 10/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 118 · 2m4f205y Goo 166 · below its mark10/03/2025 · OR 118 par10/035OR 1185 @ Kempton 01/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 118 · 2m4f110y Gd 166 · beat its mark01/04/2025 · OR 118 parBHA130 @ Punchestown 02/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 130 · 3m160y Yie 168 · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 130 par2/05130OR 1303 @ Ascot 01/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 136 · 2m2f181y Gd 164 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 136 par3 @ Kempton 24/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 136 · 3m Goo 169 · below its mark24/11/2025 · OR 136 par24/113OR 1363 @ Kempton 27/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 136 · 3m Gd 169 · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 136 par2 @ Kempton 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 140 · 2m4f110y Goo 163 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 140 par21/022OR 1401 @ Aintree 10/04/2026 · Pos 17th of 27 · OR 141 · 2m5f19y GS 149 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 141 par3 @ Newton Abbot 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 140 · 3m1f170y Gd 168 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 140 par13/053OR 140projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-13Newton AbbotMiss O Nicholls31st3rd−2
2026-04-10AintreeMiss O Nicholls117th17th0
2026-02-21KemptonMiss Olive Nicholls22nd3rd−1
2025-12-27KemptonMiss Olive Nicholls31st3rd−2
2025-11-24KemptonMiss Olive Nicholls32nd4th−2
2025-11-01AscotMiss Olive Nicholls32nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/031/1121/0213/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/03/20252nd11/893%86%-0.07
01/04/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
02/05/20252nd16/583%92%+0.09
01/11/20252nd4/596%50%-0.46
24/11/20252nd7/163%83%+0.20
27/12/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
21/02/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
10/04/202617th10/147%38%-0.09
13/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04