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5yo Mare · 11-3 · OR 110

Ascot · 1st Class Logistics Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

100%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair bumper winner. Progressed again to open her hurdles account in good style at Worcester in June. Took a strong hold/made an early blunder when narrowly justifying market strength on return at Newton Abbot. Gives weight to the boys but experience/fitness could count for plenty on hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Stratford 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 1486/1041 @ Huntingdon 07/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f171y Sft 156 · HIGHER CLASS7/1211 @ Sandown 07/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m7f216y Sft 156 · HIGHER CLASS7/0314 @ Warwick 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 2m Gd 1564/0544 @ Newton Abbot 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 15427/0544 @ Worcester 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 2m Gd 15117/0644 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 2m167y Gd 161 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 105 par18/094OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newton AbbotKielan Woods41st2nd−1
2026-06-17WorcesterKielan Woods41st2nd−1
2026-05-27Newton AbbotKielan Woods42nd3rd−1
2026-05-04WarwickDavid Noonan45th6th−1
2026-03-07SandownKielan Woods17th4th+2
2025-12-07HuntingdonKielan Woods17th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/104/0518/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 56/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -9.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20251st22/10%100%+1.00
07/12/20257th15/261%54%-0.07
07/03/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
04/05/20265th15/261%67%+0.06
27/05/20262nd2/189%89%-0.01
17/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
18/09/20261st11/893%100%+0.07