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Sportingsilvermine

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Ascot · 1st Class Logistics Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful Flat performer (stays 12.5f). Dam closely related to smart hurdler. He's proved better than ever on the level this year, landing Old Newton Cup in July. Could well make an immediate impact now switched to hurdling by leading dual-purpose yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 80 · 1m3f188y Gd 130 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 80 par13/054OR 804 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 77 · 1m1f207y Goo 127 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 86 · 1m2f56y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 86 par12/062OR 862 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 1m4f GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 21st of 22 · OR 86 · 1m2f56y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 86 par11/072OR 862 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 91 · 1m3f211y GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 92 · 1m3f188y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 92 par21/082OR 922 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 92 · 1m2f43y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Newmarket 03/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 91 · 1m4f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 91 par3/102OR 91projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03NewmarketMarco Ghiani24th3rd+1
2026-09-12DoncasterMarco Ghiani211th10th+1
2026-08-21YorkMarco Ghiani26th5th+1
2026-08-08AscotYutaka Take22nd1st+1
2026-07-11YorkRossa Ryan221th20th+1
2026-07-04NewmarketMarco Ghiani21st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/054/0721/083/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20267th22/10%63%+0.63
30/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
12/06/20263rd11/142%87%+0.45
04/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
11/07/202621st22/10%5%+0.05
08/08/20262nd16/116%89%+0.73
21/08/20266th22/10%67%+0.67
12/09/202611th8/158%9%-0.49
03/10/20264th9/153%57%+0.05