15
Emerald Time
5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 111
Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Stratford | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | Thomas Bellamy | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | Thomas Bellamy | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Worcester | Thomas Bellamy | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aintree | Thomas Bellamy | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 9-16 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 24/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 05/10/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |