11
Fasol
7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 118
Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Chepstow | Freddie Keighley | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Bangor-on-Dee | Paddy Hanlon | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Sandown | Miss O Nicholls | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Plumpton | Miss O Nicholls | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | Miss O Nicholls | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kempton | Miss Olive Nicholls | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 8-15 · tight 68/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 14/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 77% | +0.35 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.09 |