Gibbs Island
5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 131
Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Chepstow | Stan Sheppard | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | Stan Sheppard | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | Stan Sheppard | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | Stan Sheppard | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Kelso | Stan Sheppard | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Cheltenham | Stan Sheppard | 1 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/04/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/11/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 41% | +0.36 |
| 07/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 09/05/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 47% | -0.16 |
| 09/10/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |