2
Indemnity
6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 136
Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Kempton | David Probert | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Market Rasen | Ben Jones | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | Ben Jones | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | J J Burke | 1 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Plumpton | Ben Jones | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Kempton | Harry Cobden | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 8-16 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.31 |
| 26/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 21/10/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |