Messerschmitt
5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 130
Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | Donagh Meyler | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | Michael Kenneally | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Sandown | Danny McMenamin | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | Donagh Meyler | BHA126 | 11th | 24th | −11 |
| 2025-09-25 | Listowel | Michael Kenneally | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-08-26 | Bellewstown | Michael Kenneally | BHA80 | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 21/04/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 25/09/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.25 |
| 01/11/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 53% | -0.08 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |