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6

Morning Mayhem

5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 128

Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Another success story for up-and-coming yard (won 5 times). Continued his relentless progress when runner-up in pair of very competitive handicaps, latterly in Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow. Still in good heart when beaten 7¼ lengths off this career high mark at Cheltenham (2½m) latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Fakenham 04/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 111 · 2m4f1y Gd 154 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 111 par4/052OR 1113 @ Newton Abbot 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 112 · 2m167y Gd 154 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 112 par4 @ Newton Abbot 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 112 · 2m2f110y Goo 168 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 112 par12/064OR 1122 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 120 · 2m125y Gd 155 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 120 par2 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 119 · 2m5f122y Goo 152 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 119 par22/082OR 1193 @ Cartmel 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 118 · 2m1f46y Goo 161 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 118 par2 @ Market Rasen 26/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 123 · 2m125y Gd 154 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 123 par26/092OR 1232 @ Chepstow 09/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 126 · 2m16y Goo 148 · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 126 par3 @ Cheltenham 23/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 128 · 2m3f200y GS 156 · below its mark23/10/2026 · OR 128 par23/103OR 128projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-23CheltenhamKielan Woods36th7th−1
2026-10-09ChepstowKielan Woods22nd2nd0
2026-09-26Market RasenKielan Woods22nd2nd0
2026-08-29CartmelHarry Reed31st2nd−1
2026-08-22Newton AbbotKielan Woods24th4th0
2026-07-18Market RasenKielan Woods24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0518/0726/0923/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 1-16 · tight 23/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
03/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/06/20264th11/893%0%-0.93
18/07/20264th33/10%75%+0.75
22/08/20264th7/491%25%-0.66
29/08/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
26/09/20262nd12/137%91%+0.54
09/10/20262nd14/126%94%+0.67
23/10/20266th17/255%50%-0.05