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9

Nap Hand

6yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 120

Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful Flat performer. Successful 2 of his 4 hurdle starts since joining present yard, though again had a favourable set-up when winning a small-field event at Plumpton last time. Now on a career-high mark and could be worth taking on in a much deeper event.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Fakenham 13/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 115 · 2m3y Goo 162 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 115 par13/033OR 1152 @ Plumpton 05/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 114 · 1m7f195y Goo 147 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 114 par4 @ Warwick 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 112 · 2m Gd 160 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 112 par4/054OR 1124 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 1m4f5y Gd 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 80 par2 @ Cartmel 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 112 · 2m1f46y Goo 147 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 112 par28/062OR 1124 @ Newbury 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 80 · 1m3f GF 137 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 80 par2 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 111 · 2m47y Gd 150 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 111 par15/082OR 1113 @ Plumpton 20/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 118 · 1m7f195y Goo 156 · below its mark20/09/2026 · OR 118 par4 @ Plumpton 19/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 117 · 1m7f195y Goo 168 · beat its mark19/10/2026 · OR 117 par19/104OR 117projClass-projected finish: 12th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-19PlumptonFreddie Gordon41st3rd−2
2026-09-20PlumptonFern O'Brien34th5th−1
2026-08-15PerthFern O'Brien21st1st0
2026-07-17NewburyCharles Bishop45th7th−2
2026-06-28CartmelTom Cannon22nd2nd0
2026-05-23SalisburyJ Mitchell43rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0323/0515/0819/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 4-16 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
05/04/20268th18/15%46%+0.41
04/05/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
23/05/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
28/06/20262nd17/255%88%+0.32
17/07/20265th10/147%0%-0.47
15/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
20/09/20264th15/890%25%-0.65
19/10/20261st15/890%100%+0.10