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Parchment

4yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 116

Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y

#16

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Beat a now-fairly useful type when successful in newcomers race in France last summer. Well below that level in 2 starts 5 months apart (had breathing operation in the interim) for present yard last season. Faces a very different test in a competitive, big-field event on handicap bow/return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Clairefontaine 17/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 2m198y Hvy 14717/06C?4 @ Kempton 24/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m Goo 16124/1144 @ Taunton 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m3f1y Gd 15622/044projClass-projected finish: 14th of 16
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-22TauntonJack Tudor44th6th−2
2025-11-24KemptonJack Tudor45th7th−2
2025-06-17ClairefontaineJames Reveley?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0624/1122/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 13-16 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -14.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/06/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
24/11/20255th8/1397%56%-0.41
22/04/20264th7/163%50%-0.13