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Trustintimes

5yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 127

Ascot · Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y

#10

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Beat a useful, subsequent winner to land a 4-timer on handicap bow over C&D in November. The form of his subsequent second to Williethebuilder reads well, too, and he's probably needed the run on a couple of subsequent starts (promising fourth on Flat debut recently). Interesting back hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Exeter 22/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m5f38y Goo 15422/1055 @ Wincanton 05/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m7f50y Sft 1544 @ Kempton 15/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 2m Gd 15415/0344 @ Uttoxeter 03/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 1544 @ Uttoxeter 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 15914/0643 @ Ascot 21/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 119 · 1m7f157y Goo 157 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 119 par3 @ Kempton 27/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 125 · 2m Gd 157 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 125 par27/123OR 1251 @ Aintree 10/04/2026 · Pos 17th of 22 · OR 127 · 2m4f Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 127 par4 @ Nottingham 14/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m75y GS 13614/104projClass-projected finish: 9th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-14NottinghamSaffie Osborne44th6th−2
2026-04-10AintreeBryan Carver117th16th+1
2025-12-27KemptonBryan Carver32nd3rd−1
2025-11-21AscotBryan Carver31st2nd−1
2025-06-14UttoxeterBryan Carver41st3rd−2
2025-05-03UttoxeterBryan Carver41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/103/0527/1214/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20242nd11/271%91%+0.20
05/12/20245th7/491%56%-0.35
15/03/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
03/05/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
14/06/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
21/11/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
27/12/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
10/04/202617th12/137%24%-0.13
14/10/20264th9/153%77%+0.24