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Lord Churchill

4yo Gelding · 11-5

Ascot · Ascot Colts And Fillies' Club Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 157y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Churchill gelding who seemed suited by a truly-run race when coming clear for a convincing success in 8-runner bumper at Wincanton (15f) on debut (for Seamus Mullins) in April. That form has been franked by the runner-up and he looks up to defying a penalty for his new stable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wincanton 01/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m7f50y Gd 1481/045
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-01WincantonBen Jones51st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/04/20261st9/153%100%+0.47