1
Bay Runner
5yo Gelding · 11-0
Ayr · Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Newcastle | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |