2
Flaming Norman
5yo Gelding · 11-0
Ayr · Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m
#8
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Newcastle | Ryan Mania | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-21 | Newcastle | Ryan Mania | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Newcastle | Ryan Mania | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Hexham | Ryan Mania | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 27/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 21/02/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |