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5

The Skecher

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Ayr · Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/6

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up on second of 2 outings in Irish points and looked useful when justifying strong market support in heavy-ground course bumper in January. Found the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival too much in March but remains one likely to do well in novice hurdles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength27%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 29/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m Sft 15629/0151 @ Cheltenham 11/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 21 · OR - · 2m87y Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS11/031projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-11CheltenhamTristan Durrell112th7th+4
2026-01-29AyrHarry Skelton51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0111/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +41.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/01/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
11/03/202612th125/10%45%+0.45