11
Cave Hill
7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 74
Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Hexham | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Newcastle | Callum Bewley | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sedgefield | Alan Doyle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Carlisle | Alan Doyle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ayr | Alan Doyle | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-05 | Sedgefield | Alan Doyle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 14/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 05/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 62% | +0.14 |
| 03/02/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.27 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 31/03/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |