8
Didntgotwenty
7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84
Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Perth | Ryan Mania | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Musselburgh | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Musselburgh | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Ayr | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ayr | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Hexham | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/02/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 08/03/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |