6
Jirko
7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84
Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | Bruce Lynn | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-23 | Perth | Dominic Hislop | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | Ayr | Bruce Lynn | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Ayr | Bruce Lynn | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Ayr | Bruce Lynn | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Ayr | Bruce Lynn | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 11-12 · tight 87/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 08/12/2024 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 02/01/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 08/03/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 01/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 10/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |