10
Jo Arengeot Bey Aa
7yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 79
Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Uttoxeter | G Sheehan | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | G Sheehan | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | G Sheehan | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Uttoxeter | G Sheehan | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Uttoxeter | Sam Twiston-Davies | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-02 | Uttoxeter | G Sheehan | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 58/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2024 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 18/03/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |