12
Lewa House
10yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 74
Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Hexham | Bruce Lynn | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-10 | Ayr | Jack Power | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ayr | Sean Quinlan | 5 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Ayr | Ross Chapman | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ayr | Ross Chapman | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-03-25 | Hexham | Bruce Lynn | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2024 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 02/01/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.28 |
| 11/02/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 13/03/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 25/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 01/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 02/01/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |