Midnight Moonshine
7yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 95
Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Perth | Ben Smith | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | Ben Smith | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | Ben Harvey | BHA98 | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | Ben Harvey | BHA100 | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | Ben Harvey | BHA105 | 11th | 18th | −6 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | Ben Harvey | BHA103 | 9th | 15th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 18% | -0.37 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 04/07/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/09/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |