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5

Nights In Venice

10yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 90

Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a 2-year losing run when scoring over C&D in March. Backed it up with a solid second of 10 in handicap chase at Kelso (2¾m, good to soft) following month. Likely to be in the shake-up if fully tuned up on his reappearance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 17/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 97 · 2m3f210y Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/02/2025 · OR 97 par17/024OR 974 @ Ayr 07/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 96 · 2m4f110y Sft 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2025 · OR 96 par4 @ Ayr 01/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 96 · 2m4f110y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 96 par1/114OR 964 @ Kelso 07/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 93 · 2m6f151y Sft 143 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 93 par4 @ Musselburgh 22/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 90 · 2m4f68y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 90 par22/124OR 905 @ Sedgefield 25/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 89 · 3m2f59y Goo 153 · below its mark25/01/2026 · OR 89 par4 @ Kelso 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 3m2f39y Hvy 146 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 88 par13/024OR 885 @ Ayr 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 3m20y Sft 158 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 86 par5 @ Kelso 02/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 90 · 2m5f133y Goo 155 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 90 par2/045OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-02KelsoSean Quinlan52nd2nd0
2026-03-06AyrSean Quinlan51st1st0
2026-02-13KelsoSean Quinlan42nd1st+1
2026-01-25SedgefieldB S Hughes54th4th0
2025-12-22MusselburghCharlie Maggs43rd2nd+1
2025-12-07KelsoCharlie Maggs47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/027/1213/022/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 78/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/02/20253rd8/158%80%+0.22
07/03/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
01/11/20258th18/15%36%+0.31
07/12/20257th25/10%33%+0.33
22/12/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
25/01/20264th6/168%70%+0.02
13/02/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
06/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
02/04/20262nd9/488%89%+0.01