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7

Rob Roy Macgregor

8yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84

Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now 18 runs since his last win in 2023 but in good form when last seen out in May, fifth of 13 in handicap chase at Hexham (3m, good). Can't be dismissed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 08/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 86 · 3m70y Sft 154 · beat its mark08/03/2025 · OR 86 par8/035OR 865 @ Hexham 03/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 86 · 3m41y Goo 154 · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 86 par5 @ Hexham 14/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 85 · 3m41y Goo 155 · below its mark14/06/2025 · OR 85 par14/065OR 855 @ Ayr 01/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 84 · 3m20y Sft 154 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 84 par5 @ Ayr 13/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 83 · 3m20y Hvy 153 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 83 par13/015OR 835 @ Carlisle 03/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 84 · 3m110y Goo 147 · beat its mark03/02/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Ayr 23/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 3m20y Sft 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 83 par23/024OR 834 @ Hexham 25/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 83 · 3m7f199y Sft 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Hexham 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 85 · 3m41y Gd 153 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 85 par2/055OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-02HexhamP W Wadge55th5th0
2026-03-25HexhamP W Wadge43rd2nd+1
2026-02-23AyrP W Wadge42nd1st+1
2026-02-03CarlisleP W Wadge54th4th0
2026-01-13AyrP W Wadge52nd2nd0
2025-11-01AyrJamie Hamilton57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/031/1123/022/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength42%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/03/20253rd25/10%87%+0.87
03/05/20254th6/168%67%-0.02
14/06/20258th6/168%36%-0.32
01/11/20257th4/179%45%-0.33
13/01/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
03/02/20264th11/271%77%+0.06
23/02/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
25/03/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12
02/05/20265th5/174%67%-0.07