4
Torosay
8yo Mare · 11-8 · OR 94
Ayr · BSB Structural Handicap Chase · 3m 20y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Ayr | Gregor Walkingshaw | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Ayr | Gregor Walkingshaw | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Ayr | D R Fox | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Carlisle | D R Fox | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ayr | D R Fox | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-14 | Hexham | Conner McCann | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/12/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 13/03/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 14/04/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 13/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |