5
An Mhi
9yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 120
Ayr · United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲8
Strength45%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 12.6 /10 (raw 33.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C11.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -8.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Ballinrobe | Mike O'Connor | BHA130 | −10 | ||
| 2024-11-06 | Auteuil | F Giles | BHA131 | 6th | 18th | −10 |
| 2024-06-18 | Clairefontaine | Kevin Nabet | BHA131 | 2nd | 14th | −10 |
| 2023-09-11 | Galway | Jack Kennedy | BHA131 | 5th | 17th | −10 |
| 2023-08-13 | Downpatrick | Keith Donoghue | BHA126 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
| 2023-07-02 | Uttoxeter | S Bowen | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2023 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 05/02/2023 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/05/2023 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2023 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 02/07/2023 | 1st | 30/100 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 13/08/2023 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/09/2023 | 5th | 16/5 | 83% | 0% | -0.83 |
| 18/06/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 06/11/2024 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |