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3

Knomorediamonds

6yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 123

Ayr · United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bookended last season with dominant victories in heavy-ground handicaps, the form of his latest win at Ayr in April reading well (beat a useful sort). Likely to be ready to roll, and he merits serious consideration even with conditions not as testing as ideal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 17/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 104 · 2m1f33y Sft 155 · beat its mark17/10/2024 · OR 104 par17/104OR 1044 @ Carlisle 11/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 108 · 2m1f33y Goo 168 · below its mark11/11/2024 · OR 108 par4 @ Newcastle 14/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 107 · 2m190y GS 158 · below its mark14/12/2024 · OR 107 par14/124OR 1074 @ Musselburgh 02/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 106 · 2m3f171y GS 159 · below its mark02/02/2025 · OR 106 par4 @ Hexham 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 104 · 2m4f28y GS 162 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 104 par3/104OR 1044 @ Haydock 03/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 115 · 2m2f191y GS 163 · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 115 par4 @ Haydock 17/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 117 · 2m5f50y GS 166 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 117 par17/014OR 1174 @ Carlisle 16/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 117 · 2m1f Sft 161 · below its mark16/02/2026 · OR 117 par2 @ Ayr 17/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 117 · 2m5f91y Sft 150 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 117 par17/042OR 117projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-17AyrAlan Doyle21st0th+1
2026-02-16CarlisleAlan Doyle43rd4th−1
2026-01-17HaydockAlan Doyle44th5th−1
2025-12-03HaydockAlan Doyle42nd3rd−1
2025-11-02CarlisleAlan Doyle30
2025-10-03HexhamAlan Doyle41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/102/0217/0117/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20242nd7/163%90%+0.27
11/11/20244th5/174%67%-0.07
14/12/20243rd11/1094%80%-0.14
02/02/20256th16/116%44%+0.29
03/10/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
03/12/20252nd13/891%80%-0.11
17/01/20264th13/266%81%+0.15
16/02/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
17/04/20261st25/10%100%+1.00