4
Loch Cuan
5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 122
Ayr · United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | James Smith | BHA119 | −9 | ||
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | S Bowen | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | S Bowen | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | Sam Ewing | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-02-08 | Navan | Kevin Sexton | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-12-26 | Down Royal | Mr B O'Neill | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 32/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 21% | -0.26 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 30/100 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |