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7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 130
Ayr · United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle · 3m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Worcester | Theo Gillard | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | Theo Gillard | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Haydock | Theo Gillard | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Doncaster | Theo Gillard | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Musselburgh | Charlie Maggs | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Doncaster | B S Hughes | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 25/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |