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4

Cavalier Du Luy

5yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 112

Ayr · Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Irish point winner who landed the odds in 2m maiden hurdle at Kelso in December. Not disgraced when fifth of 8 in novice here (2m, heavy) following month. Returns for his chase debut after a breathing operation and can't be dismissed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 12/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 15412/1144 @ Kelso 29/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 2m51y Goo 15829/1244 @ Ayr 29/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 113 · 2m Sft 166 · below its mark29/01/2026 · OR 113 par29/014OR 113projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-29AyrBruce Lynn45th5th0
2025-12-29KelsoBruce Lynn41st1st0
2025-11-12AyrBruce Lynn42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1129/1229/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -60.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20252nd18/15%92%+0.87
29/12/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
29/01/20265th9/276%43%-0.33