Great Pepper
8yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 115
Ayr · Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | Charlotte Jones | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Carlisle | Charlotte Jones | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-01-29 | Ayr | Charlotte Jones | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ayr | Charlotte Jones | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Wetherby | Charlotte Jones | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2025-05-28 | Cartmel | Charlotte Jones | 3 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2023 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/12/2023 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/02/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |