Moon Phases
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 111
Ayr · Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Kelso | D R Fox | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-02-13 | Kelso | D R Fox | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Newcastle | D R Fox | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Kelso | D R Fox | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ayr | P W Wadge | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Ayr | D R Fox | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2024 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 8% | -0.68 |
| 07/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 77% | +0.11 |
| 18/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |