My Kiwi Girl
7yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 108
Ayr · Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Carlisle | B S Hughes | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ayr | Sean Quinlan | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2025-03-07 | Ayr | B S Hughes | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-02-13 | Newcastle | R P McLernon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-01-21 | Ayr | R P McLernon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-12-21 | Haydock | K Brogan | 1 | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 21/12/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 21/01/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 13/02/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 07/03/2025 | 1st | 1/6 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |