One More Stroke
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 111
Ayr · Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | Newcastle | B S Hughes | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Wetherby | B S Hughes | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-25 | Perth | B S Hughes | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-03-23 | Carlisle | B S Hughes | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-02-25 | Catterick | B S Hughes | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Musselburgh | B S Hughes | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2024 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 09/12/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 24/01/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 01/02/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/02/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 23/03/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 77% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |