8
Tommy Combats
7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 108
Ayr · Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Carlisle | Jamie Hamilton | 2 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ayr | Callum Bewley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Ayr | Callum Bewley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Newcastle | Callum Bewley | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2025-11-01 | Ayr | Callum Bewley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Ayr | Henry Brooke | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 11/12/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/01/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 17/02/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 08/03/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.31 |