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Wolfburg

7yo Gelding · 12-1 · OR 116

Ayr · Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Good record over fences in this headgear combination, adding to a Go North series final win at Carlisle (2½m) when shading a tight finish at Kelso (23.5f, good) this spring. Off 6 months but remains capable of better and a likely player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kelso 29/12/2023 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m51y Hvy 15829/1244 @ Catterick 27/02/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m7f156y Sft 1614 @ Perth 24/04/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 103 · 2m47y Goo 152 · below its mark24/04/2025 · OR 103 par24/044OR 1034 @ Musselburgh 28/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m7f182y GS 154 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 95 par5 @ Wetherby 26/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 91 · 2m3f85y Sft 164 · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 91 par26/125OR 915 @ Catterick 21/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 97 · 3m1f54y Sft 167 · below its mark21/01/2026 · OR 97 par4 @ Carlisle 16/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 2m3f210y Goo 159 · beat its mark16/02/2026 · OR 97 par16/024OR 972 @ Carlisle 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 99 · 2m3f210y Goo 145 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 99 par3 @ Kelso 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 110 · 2m7f96y Goo 146 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 110 par20/043OR 110projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-20KelsoP W Wadge31st0th+1
2026-03-22CarlisleP W Wadge21st-1th+2
2026-02-16CarlisleCallum Bewley42nd2nd0
2026-01-21CatterickCallum Bewley53rd4th−1
2025-12-26WetherbyCraig Nichol51st2nd−1
2025-11-28MusselburghP W Wadge47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1228/1116/0220/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20234th11/271%63%-0.09
27/02/20241st5/174%100%+0.26
24/04/202511th40/10%23%+0.23
28/11/20257th22/10%14%+0.14
26/12/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
21/01/20263rd16/583%82%-0.01
16/02/20262nd5/493%86%-0.08
22/03/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
20/04/20261st1/195%100%+0.05