El Jefe
9yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 99
Ayr · '3B Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Perth | Conor Rabbitt | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-07 | Ayr | Conor Rabbitt | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ayr | Conor Rabbitt | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kelso | Conor Rabbitt | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Ayr | Conor Rabbitt | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Uttoxeter | Ben Smith | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 24/04/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/11/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |